The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026, predicting a slight increase to 3.1%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.0%. Despite this upward adjustment, the projected growth remains below the 3.5% expansion experienced in 2025. The IMF anticipates a growth rate of 3.4% for 2027, suggesting a modest upward trajectory in the global economy.
The IMF attributes part of this growth to investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which are helping to mitigate the economic effects of rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions. However, the benefits of AI investment are not evenly spread, with the United States and China dominating the demand for imported computer chips and AI-related equipment, accounting for more than three-quarters of global demand.
While acknowledging the positive impact of AI on economic growth, the IMF cautions about potential risks associated with the technology. Concerns include a possible correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats, all of which could jeopardize global financial stability. Moreover, the organization estimates that AI could impact around 40% of jobs worldwide, altering job tasks, quality, and employment levels.
Inflation is another area of concern, with global inflation projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. These forecasts assume the resumption of oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz by March and a moderation in demand for AI products.
Among major economies, the United States is expected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. China’s economy is projected to expand by 4.5% this year, while India is forecasted to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, down from 7.7% in 2025. Emerging and developing economies are anticipated to grow by 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027.
The IMF also highlights challenges in the Middle East and Central Asia, where economies are expected to contract this year before recovering in 2027. The organization urges governments to reinforce public finances and manage rising debt levels, especially as borrowing costs remain high and geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence the global economic outlook.