DataGreat, a tourism intelligence firm, has unveiled a scenario analysis to evaluate the potential impacts of an ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkey’s tourism sector. This sector ranks as the country’s third-largest export industry. The analysis was conducted using the Crisis Impact Simulator developed by the company’s founder, Alper Tekin, and was integrated with data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025.
Turkey’s vulnerability to the regional conflict is not merely coincidental but rather deeply rooted in its geographical and economic ties. Among its top ten sources of incoming tourists are countries like Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, all situated within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel conflict zone. Tourism significantly contributes over 11 percent to Turkey’s GDP and sustains around three million direct jobs, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
The Crisis Impact Simulator by DataGreat operates by applying deterministic scenarios to existing datasets from the WTTC and World Bank, while a generative-AI layer provides explanatory narratives. The system boasts a “zero hallucinations” feature, ensuring that any numerical data presented is directly traceable to its source, with unmatched figures being automatically rejected by the platform.
Three scenarios were outlined: First, a regional escalation could disrupt airspace and tighten sanctions, affecting European leisure travel to Turkey, particularly from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, though business travel from the EU shows greater resilience. Second, a significant drop in Russian tourists, Turkey’s largest single tourist market, could occur due to sanctions and economic tensions, impacting areas heavily reliant on Russian visitors, like Antalya and Muğla. Third, a spike in the Turkish lira’s risk premium linked to the US-Iran axis could have mixed effects, making Turkey a cheaper destination for international tourists while potentially reducing domestic travel due to increased costs for locals.
Tekin emphasizes that the simulator serves as a strategic planning tool rather than a predictive model, allowing stakeholders in the tourism industry to prepare for potential scenarios before they unfold in the news. Detailed outputs, including vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies, are accessible to the media upon request, along with insights from DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks across 42 countries. DataGreat operates from Edirne, Turkey, under Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş.